Wednesday, June 01, 2005

One of the smarter guys in the room

Peter Thiel, in my humble opinion is one of the smartest and most articulate investor / fund manager around. He was the co-founder of Pay-Pal and now manages $ 700 Million at Clarium Capital Management LLC in San Francisco.

He takes an intermediate to long term view of things (3-10 years).
His current calls (May 31st 2005) are
  1. Long on the dollar – believes that dollar will strengthen against the Euro
  2. Long on oil – believes oil will hit $80-100 per barrel in 5-10 years – recommends Canadian tar-oil stocks

Opti Canada
Western Oil Sands
Nexen

  1. The housing bubble will gradually deflate when the Fed stops its rate increases by late 2005

I think I agree with his opinion on the dollar, after all as long as the welfare loving Europeans prefer afternoon siestas, wine and cheese to actually working the Euro isn’t going anywhere, after this weekends French rejection of the European constitution – its going to be even harder to get any business friendly legislation done. The Japanese are recovering but in the forex market it’s all a relative game and comparatively the US seems to be doing fine although not roaring along. I have to say I had recommended buying Euros in January 2005, but after a brief rally in March its been all downhill since, lost my shirt on those leveraged deals.

I cannot say anything about Oil, although as a small investor I would not invest in such small and speculative companies, it always pays to hold some large Oil stocks in your portfolio like Exxon, Shell, BP or Chevron – after all oil pretty much runs the engine of the world economy (no pun intended).

The housing phenomenon is an enigma to me – having always lived in the North-east and California my views are biased – In my experience housing prices were high in 1999 and they are higher today in 2005 – its as if the prices never really went down, so yeah maybe we’ll see a slight dip but as far as I am concerned a house is a place I got to have a place to live. So well if housing tanks - I dont think it will, so I would still hold on to the Home Depots and Lowes of the world.

16 Comments:

Blogger Bill888 said...

Does anyone really care what you have to say. Well...yes, I do. I enjoyed my brief visit. If you have an interest in learn to trade forex you might be interested in paying a visit to my learn to trade forexsite. In the meantime, keep up the good blogging.

11:07 AM  
Blogger Bill888 said...

Good job - interesting posts, lots to consider. My own interests concern forex calculator and perhaps you might have an interest in checking out the subject of forex calculator. Keep posting and I'll keep reading.

5:03 PM  
Blogger Free Traffic System said...

Hello,

I liked your blog. I found many interesting information here.
I also give free info about forex online option trading on my
href="http://www.WebTradingSystem.com">Forex Trading System
site.

If you have time please visit my web site to get some free forex online option trading
information.

Kind regards,
Nick

4:22 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

I'm always looking for a place where I can learn more about forex, forex trading, forex education and improve my online profit. I will be keeping an eye on your blog as I liked it a lot. Another site I found with forex education resources is forex education

11:39 AM  
Blogger Google Page Rank 6 said...

Good blog very valuable info, I'll book market and come back offten, I did't see any adsense ads though. You should think about adding them. It is good revenue to you as a webmaster/ blogger.

I have a blog about The Facts of Forex

It is a pretty good blog if you want more information on How to make moneyTrading.

12:22 PM  
Blogger . said...

I just came across your blog, and wanted to drop you a note telling you how impressed I was with the information you have posted here. I also have a forex ira trading blog, so I know what I'm talking about when I say your site is top-notch! Keep up the great work, you are providing a great resource on the Internet here!

2:03 PM  
Blogger . said...

I just came across your blog, and wanted to drop you a note telling you how impressed I was with the information you have posted here. I also have a forex trading system blog, so I know what I'm talking about when I say your site is top-notch! Keep up the great work, you are providing a great resource on the Internet here!

7:19 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Hi,

Just browsing around the net for online forex trading platform and came across your blog. I've been trying to add as much info as I can about online forex trading platform on my site. But must admit I get a bit confused... there's just some many sites, tips, information ... you name about online forex trading platform it's hard to know where to begin!
I'm thinking of adding a online forex trading platform on my site, when I do, your all more that welcome to come a leave tips and help...

Until then take care!
Steward.

1:56 PM  
Blogger doer said...

Hey, you have a great blog here! I'm definitely going to bookmark you!
I have a forex system site. It pretty much covers Forex related stuff.

1:07 PM  
Blogger Johnny said...

Hello, your blog is inmformative, I just found a brand new forex trading system using both Mathematical and psychlogical approch, hope you can visit and it will be useful to your trading life.

12:45 PM  
Blogger job opportunitya said...

Irresistible blog. I look for blogs like this one
when time allows me to. I enjoyed the site and I'll
check it next time!
I will give you access to jump to my Real Estate Note blog.

2:52 AM  
Blogger Bob said...

Check uot this site if you are thinking of futures trading

12:32 PM  
Anonymous Forex Trade said...

Hi there. Kinda busy, but looking for information on forex. Nice blog, good info. Maybe visit my site if you're looking for forex related material forex. Thanks

8:25 AM  
Anonymous scottaedwards said...

The fact is that the INTERNET is making people RICH! Shouldn't YOU be one of them? Click here: FIND OUT NOW!

8:14 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Interesting blog. I can see that you've done a lot of work on it.

Regards,
Stock Options Trader
stock option trading

2:48 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Interesting blog. I can see that you've done a lot of work on it.

Regards,
Stock Options Trader
stock options

1:50 PM  

Post a Comment

<< Home