Saturday, January 29, 2005

Dial M for merger? plus Commodities, Euro and Skechers

Continuing on last months theme, that I thought the market was overvalued. Since the beginning of the year we have seen a downward trend I think the major averages are down 4-5% since my last blog. Well and as I predicted the merger mania goes on only now its become even bigger....well the IPO market is dry so the investment bankers have to make money somewhere. This week it was Proctor Gambling over Gillette so now do I get a Mach69 free with Tide? Anyway speaking of the wall street greed, I have to do some self promotion here I found myself venting at them during my writings on the
Social Security mess too.

So do I still think the market is overvalued. Yes I do and the same reasons still hold as they did last month. However I do think there is money to be made here. Jim Rogers some of whose ideas are not the least eccentric has written a new book Hot Commodities, I managed to read it sitting at Borders and I think he makes some good points, so maybe some of these commodity players like Archer Daniel Midlands (ADM) and the Australian mining giant Broken Hill (BHP) (disclaimer: I own this stock) may be good bets here. I am not sure if the common investor should get into leveraged commodity trading though. Also following on the footsteps of Warren Buffett, I think the Euro is still a good bet and expect the dollar to fall even more to maybe 1.45E by the end of this year. Also came across a good read in the recent Smart Money article where they recommened the stock of footwear and sportswear maker Skechers (NYSE:SKX), closed at $14.25 yesterday. I bought some sneakers from them three months ago, great stuff - I know since I am a regular runner, also the staff was helpful and cooperative - almost a lost art these days. I am thinking of buying some here; havent made up my mind yet though.