Saturday, September 03, 2005

Fly but don't Buy

You don't have to be a business buff to realize airlines are in trouble, some blame deregulation,
others the labor unions etc. The fact remains that since the birth of commercial aviation, a hundred odd years ago the combined industry with all the numerous airlines has not turned a dollar in profit!!! In fact as Warren Buffet puts it aptly "In terms of shareholder value, the Kitty Hawk should have been shot down immediately."

Airlines are an incredibly bad business
-High capital costs (planes, engines, hangars etc) translates to high fixed costs, that extra seat doesn't cost you anything so the temptation to sell that at a terrible price is overwhelming, leading to internecine price wars.
-Requires skilled personnel (pilots, mechanics) who cannot be replaced easily since these jobs require a lot of training, gives the unions a lot of clout.
-A highly customer facing industry, the slightest issues with delays, cancellations, baggage handling leads to bad publicity and hinders new business.
-Add to all this the vagaries of the world oil markets.

So as an investment I stay away from airlines, there have been some remarkable successes with the likes of Southwest Airlines (NYSE : LUV) and JetBlue (Nasdaq : JBLU) . As a longer picture I can see a consolidation of between the larger players American, United, Delta, Continental, Northwest into 2 or 3 large carriers possibly even a trans- atlantic merger (think AA and BA) and possibly 3 or 4 regional/low cost carriers (the recent merger between US Air and America West is a good start).

Maybe then this industry with some pricing power may be an attractive place to parlay some of your hard earned money. (I do expect this to happen in the next 3-5 years). Meanwhile keep flying but heed the advice of the Oracle of Omaha.
AK
soundmoneyfuture@gmail.com

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